Wer den War Index nicht versteht, kann nur die falsche Politik machen – Think beyond the obvious

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Gestern besprach ich einen aktuellen Kommentar von Gunnar Heinsohn zur demografischen Entwicklung in Jemen. Hier nochmals die Fakten, eindeutig und klar. Wer sie nicht sieht, will sie nicht sehen und in seiner Illusion weiterleben. Aber das Aufwachen aus der Illusion kommt garantiert und wird schmerzhaft:

  • „Trump recently told the Pentagon that he fears the United States might be losing the war in Afghanistan. According to the Wall Street Journal, he is pressed to send more troops. Though the president has good instincts, neither he nor his military advisers seem to understand the demographic origin of their problems on the battlefield. Birth rates, not bombs and bullets, explain how an apparently insignificant country like Afghanistan has been able to challenge the two most powerful military machines in the world.“  bto: Das erklärt auch einen Teil der Probleme der Palästinenser und mit den Palästinensern, denn  im Gaza-Streifen hat sich die Zahl Einwohner seit 1950 verzehnfacht.
  • „In 1979, the 380 million people of the Soviet bloc went to war with the 13 million people of Afghanistan. After suffering horrendous casualties (estimates range from 650,000 some 2 million dead) in 10 years of bloody warfare, Afghan rebels should have been ready to surrender. The Soviets and their allies had managed to reduce the number of potential Afghan insurgents from 1.76 to 1.65 million. (…) The Russians were not aware that during a decade of conflict, Afghanistan’s already high war index had jumped from 4.65 to 6.53. Faced with that extreme drive of angry young men, it was the Communist superpower that gave up the fight.“ –  bto: einfach, weil die Russen zu wenig junge Männer haben.
  • „Their demographic advantage is enormous, and in times of conflict has grown. (…) Only the young let go of life easily, Prussia’s leading military instructor, Colmar von der Goltz, had observed in 1883. Goltz recommended putting 17-year-olds in the line of fire. In the wake of 9/11, as America was gearing up for war, the Pentagon was not aware that it would soon be confronted by a nation that had taken Goltz’s advice.“  bto: und die ganze arabische Welt.
  • „No matter how many smart bombs America and NATO dropped, Afghan forces grew stronger. The West was still not aware it was battling demographics. With an average of seven to eight children being born to each woman, Afghan insurgents could easily replace their losses. (…)  Today Afghanistan’s pool of warriors numbers above 5 million; the country’s war index is almost 6.0.“  bto: Damit kann man nur gewinnen, wenn man Massenvernichtungswaffen einsetzt. Und das machen wir aus humanitären Gründen nicht. Zu Recht.
  • „Nations with a war index of 1.0 (such as the United States) or lower (such as Germany, with its 0.65) which consider intervening in Afghanistan, or demographically similar war theatres, must act with extreme caution. NATO countries and other nations with low birth rates are sensitive to battlefield casualties. Statistically, every fallen western soldier represents his mother’s only son—or in many cases, her only child.“ bto: Darum Finger weg aus der Region!
  • „Where the index is 3.0 or higher, generals should think twice about intervening. If intervention cannot be avoided, military leaders should remember the expensive lessons learned by the Russians and the West alike: Planes, tanks, and troops have a limited impact when aggression is being driven by demographics.“  bto: So ist es, die demografische Entwicklung beeinflusst die Entwicklung von Aggression. Deshalb sollten wir uns aus diesen Gegenden möglichst raushalten, humanitäre Hilfe mit Maßnahmen zur Geburtenkontrolle verbinden und zugleich den europäischen Grenzschutz ausbauen. Migration zu uns wirkt wie ein Tropfen auf den heißen Stein und ist zudem höchst unwirtschaftlich. Mit gleichem finanziellen Aufwand erreichen wir vor Ort viel mehr. Zuwanderung darf nur noch durch Qualifizierte erfolgen, da wir sonst in Zukunft gar nicht mehr in der Lage sind, zu helfen.

→ weeklystandard.com: „Afghanistan, Russia, and the War Index“, 10. August 2017



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